Spiritual Politics  

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Spiritual Politics blog

State by State

Leonard E. Greenberg Center

State by state

Alabama 
Alaska 
Arizona 
Arkansas 
California 
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Connecticut 
Delaware 
District of Columbia 
Florida 
Georgia 
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Idaho 
Illinois 
Indiana 
Iowa 
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Maryland 
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Oklahoma 
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Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico 
Rhode Island 
South Carolina 
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Tennessee 
Texas 
Utah 
Vermont 
Virginia 
Washington 
West Virginia 
Wisconsin 
Wyoming 

Polls

Republican Primary Exit Poll
Democratic Primary Exit Poll

Florida: Religious demographics chart

Democratic Primary Results*

Republican Primary Results

Commentary

Democrat
In this three-way contest (which was declared prematurely scheduled by the Democratic National Committee), Obama won half of the More-than-weeklies while Clinton half of all the other attendance categories. Clinton prevailed with 45 percent of the Protestants (including Other Christians), 63 percent of the Catholics, 58 percent of the Jews, and 40 percent of the Nones. Obama won the Other Christians alone with 43 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent; and the non-Judeo-Christians with 48 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.

Republican
Huckabee, who chose largely to ignore Florida in favor of the Super Tuesday South, nevertheless won a 40 percent plurality of the More-than-weeklies, who constituted 17 percent of the vote. The Weeklies and Monthlies went to Romney, while the Few-Times-A-Years and Nevers went to McCain. The three effectively tied among evangelicals, with McCain slightly out front at 30 percent and Huckabee and Romney at 29 percent. Among white evangelicals alone, Huckabee and Romney tied for the lead at 31 percent, with McCain three points back. Romney won a plurality of the Protestants (including Other Christians), while McCain won pluralities of Catholics and Nones. Among white Catholics, Romney edged out McCain, 34 percent to 33 percent. McCain’s weaker performance among white evangelicals and Catholics is doubtless due to his support in the Latino (Cuban) population, which he carried overwhelmingly at 54 percent.

More...

01 31 08 Obama and the Jews   Mark Silk
My colleague Ron Kiener has an excellent analysis on his blog of Obama's "Jewish problem," making use of the Florida exit polls. There does seem to be a widespread impression that Obama is soft on support for Israel, fueled in no small part by ugly emails circulating around the Internet. The organized Jewish community clearly denounced these emails two weeks ago. Among the latest to address the anti-Obama campaign is Martin Peretz, editor in chief of the New Republic and as staunch a supporter of Israel as one is likely to find this side of the loony bin. The headline of his piece is "Can Friends of Israel--and Jews--Trust Obama?" and the answer is an unequivocal yes, with the implication that he can be trusted more than a Clinton. My guess is that such efforts to alleviate Jewish suspicions will have some success, but that, come Super Tuesday, Jews will still tip towards Hillary. In New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, and Massachusetts, that could make a difference.

01 30 08   Mitt's Last Chance  Mark Silk
Hugh Hewitt, fighting for Romney till the last dog dies, puts the best face he can on the Florida results and argues that a stop McCain effort will require Huckabee's people to look down the road and switch to the Mittster.
The shadow of the '96 Dole campaign will fall on McCain now, and the prospect of an Obama-McCain fall campaign will be the key consideration for Huckabee voters over the next seven days. Huck's voters are conservative or very conservative, and if they stay with Huck because they like him better than Romney, they hand the nomination to McCain.
Could happen, I guess, on a wing and a prayer.

01 29 08   Huckabust    Mark Silk
OK, according to the Florida exit poll, Huckabee got 32 percent of the white born-again/evangelical vote, Romney 31 percent, McCain 26 percent, and Giuliani 6 percent. In a word, Huck did worse among white evangelicals than he's done in any state thus far; and white evangelicals showed that they are increasingly prepared to vote for Romney. Meanwhile, Huckabee got only 4 percent of the Catholic vote (McCain 38 percent, Romney 28 percent, Giuliani 24 percent), demonstrating even more powerfully than before his inability to break out of the evangelical box. All told, a good day for the Article 6 (no religious test for office) crowd, and a lousy day for Huck. The thin silver lining for him, I suppose, is that McCain continues to struggle with his folks, making the case for giving him the VP nod stronger.

01 29 08 Sunshine Christian Soldiers  Mark Silk
Here's a Florida pastor's cri de coeur for Huckabee: Where have all the evangelicals gone? The polls show Huck struggling in fourth place. If there are as many evangelicals in Florida as John Green thinks there is, then a smaller proportion of them are voting for Huckabee than elsewhere. Of course, there are various possible explanations for the numbers. Maybe there was not enough time or money to get the word out in so big and complex a state. Or maybe evangelical voters have decided that Huckabee has turned into an also-ran, and want to determine the winner. Or maybe the pollsters have failed to estimate the turnout of evangelicals properly. They've certainly been wrong before this primary season. We'll see soon enough.

01 22 08 To Huck? Mark Silk
So Thompson's gone. That should give Huckabee a bit of a boost in Florida, as evangelical devotees of "Law and Order" turn to reruns of "Walker, Texas Ranger."

01 21 08 Evangelicals in the Sunshine State  Mark Silk
In his article on the looming Jan. 29 Florida Republican primary in today's New York Times, Adam Nagorney writes, "About a quarter of the Republican voters in Florida are evangelical Christians." That seemed low to me, so I inquired of trusty fellow blogger John Green, and here's his assessment:
It does sound low. Evangelicals make up about 25 percent of the adult population in FL and since they are very Republican, they should bulk a good bit larger in the GOP primary electorate. Interestingly, they are about the same percentage of the adult population as in Iowa. So turnout is an issue and hard to predict.
Look at it this way: If evangelicals turn out big time and make up half the voters in the primary, and Huckabee wins half of them (consistent with his previous numbers), then he's at 25 percent of the vote. Another five percent cobbled together from non-evangelicals and--assuming good showings by Giuliani, Romney, and McCain--he wins.